A decade of change in Hungarian handball: Structural trends and determinants of youth–senior transition (2013–2023)

Abstract

Problem statement: The transition from youth to senior competition represents a critical phase of athlete development, during which increasing performance demands and organisational pressures frequently contribute to dropout. Although Hungarian men’s handball has undergone major structural changes and rapid expansion over the past decade, little is known about how individual characteristics, organisational conditions, and systemlevel reforms jointly shape athletes’ progression beyond the youth category. The lack of longitudinal, systemwide evidence limits understanding of the mechanisms influencing retention at this decisive developmental threshold. Therefore, this study examined the multilevel predictors of career continuation versus dropout among male players competing in Hungary’s top youth division between 2013 and 2023. Methods: A national registry including 2,161 players was analysed, of whom 1,879 athletes with definitive post-youth outcomes were included in multivariable models. Dropout was defined as the absence of any senior-level appearances. Predictors encompassed individual attributes (birth cohort), organisational characteristics (club type and the presence of a senior pathway through NB I or NB I/B teams), and system-level exposure to the post-2017 structural reform. Logistic regression was supplemented by ordinal models, multilevel analyses, and sensitivity tests to assess robustness. Results: The dropout rate at the youth–senior transition was 32.3%. Four significant predictors emerged. Players born after 2000 showed markedly higher odds of dropout compared with earlier cohorts. Organisational context was a strong determinant: affiliation with a club providing a direct senior pathway substantially reduced dropout, whereas players from newly established development centres exhibited higher attrition than those from traditional clubs. Independent of these factors, exposure to the post-2017 period—characterised by rapid competition-system expansion—was associated with an increased likelihood of dropout. Cohort size was not a significant predictor. All findings remained stable across robustness checks. Conclusions: Youth–senior transition outcomes in Hungarian men’s handball are shaped by the combined influence of generational load, organisational maturity, and system-level structural conditions. Stable developmental environments and clear senior progression routes appear essential for supporting athlete retention. To enhance long-term continuity, structural expansion should be aligned with proportional investments in coaching expertise, athlete-support systems, and integrated youth–senior development frameworks.