Analysis of sport climbing athlete participation in Bulgaria from the first to the seventh age group for calculating the adolescent dropout rate

Abstract

The study addresses a key issue related to athlete dropout and retention in youth sport climbing. The analysis examines age-related dynamics in physical development and psychological processes specific to adolescents, using official protocols from Bulgarian Cup sport climbing competitions for the period 2016–2025. The protocols were organized into a unified database and analyzed using descriptive statistics, gender comparison, trend analysis, and cohort analysis. The interpretation of the data reveals an uneven distribution of dropout across competitive age groups, with dropout during adolescence reaching approximately 50% in several transitions. A clear influx of new athletes is observed primarily from the first to the third age group, whereas the entry of new athletes into the older groups declines substantially. The results suggest that the number of adolescent competitors depends mainly on athletes who are attracted to and retained in sport at earlier ages, which may explain the smaller number of athletes who continue into the older age groups. The average duration of competitive participation identified in our study is approximately 2.5 years, with a median of 2 years, indicating that for most athletes, involvement in competitive sport climbing is relatively short-lived. Approximately 65%–70% of competitors stop participating within the first 2–3 years, while long-term retention (more than 6 years) is characteristic of only a very small group. The transition from youth categories to the adult men’s and women’s categories appears to be exceptionally rare. Analysis of official sport climbing competition records revealed a correlation between patterns of dropout and recruitment in the sport and the age-related characteristics and social changes specific to adolescents. These factors were used to support and interpret the findings. The interpretation of the data may also serve as a starting point for broader, more comprehensive future research on athlete dropout and recruitment in sport among adolescents in general. During the study, additional directions for future research were identified, such as the influence of sporting success on long-term retention in the sport, which was beyond the scope of this investigation.