Technical and tactical determinants of serve success and rally outcomes in U14 Taiwanese junior tennis players

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study was to investigate the technical and tactical factors influencing serve performance and rally outcomes among junior tennis players. Specifically, (a) the relationship between serve types and serve-in success rates; (b) the association between serve types and return-shot techniques on the second stroke; and (c) the relationships among serve outcomes, rally shot counts, and techniques used in rallywinning strokes were examined. Performance data were collected from video recordings of singles matches (from the quarterfinals to the finals) during the 2024 YONEX National A-level U14 Junior Tennis Tournament in Taiwan. A total of 102 service games, played by seven male junior players, were analyzed using Simi Scout tagging software. Chi-square tests of independence and descriptive percentage comparisons were conducted to examine the distribution of performance outcome variables. Results: (a) Serve-In Performance: A statistically significant association was found between serve type and serve-in outcome, with a higher success rate for second serves (84.4%) than for first serves (69.3%). (b) Second-stroke return technique: The type of serve significantly influenced the return technique used on the second shot. For first serves, returns were distributed as 46.0% forehand and 54.0% backhand; for second serves, returns shifted to 60.1% forehand and 39.9% backhand. (c) Serve-point outcomes and rally analysis: First serves produced a 52.3% point-winning rate, whereas second serves were associated with a 59.7% error rate. The rally shot count was significantly associated with point outcomes, with rallies of 1–4 shots yielding the highest winning percentage (55.4%). Stroke technique was also significantly associated with outcomes, with the forehand volley demonstrating the highest point-winning rate of 63.6%. Conclusion: Key determinants of successful service games in U14 junior tennis include a high secondserve success rate, tactical use of backhand returns following first serves, a strong first-serve point-winning percentage, efficiency in short rallies (1–4 shots), and the effectiveness of forehand volleys in winning points. These findings provide valuable insights for optimizing serve strategies and rally planning in youth tennis development.