The impact of increasing substitutions from 3 to 5 on football team performance

Abstract

Problem Statement: The five-substitution rule has become one of the most relevant regulatory changes in modern football, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic. Although initially introduced to reduce player overload during congested match schedules, this rule has also influenced tactical decisions, match intensity, and the role of substitute players. Approach: This study used a mixed-methods approach, combining the analysis of publicly available match data with evidence from scientific literature and official competition reports. The analysis focused on the contribution of substitute players, goal involvement, match timing, and tactical implications before and after the introduction of the five-substitution rule. Purpose: The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of increasing the number of substitutions from three to five on football team performance, with particular attention to substitute players’ contribution, final-stage match dynamics, and tactical flexibility. Results: The findings suggest that substitute players have become increasingly important in modern football. Their contribution to goals and assists has increased across recent seasons, while additional substitutions appear to support the maintenance of match intensity, especially in the final stages of the game. The results also indicate that the five-substitution rule provides coaches with greater tactical flexibility, although it may offer additional advantages to teams with deeper squads. Conclusions: The five-substitution rule represents an important development in football regulation. It supports player workload management and increases tactical options for coaches, while also strengthening the role of substitute players in decisive match moments. However, its impact should be interpreted with caution, as the relationship between substitutions and match outcomes reflects associations rather than direct causality.